Game report · 2026 Week 9 · B1G · Sat, Oct 31, 11:30 AM CT
MICH @ RUTG
Michigan28
RutgersB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
11 4th downs · 11 graded · 9 matched · 0 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | Q1 | 13:15 | 0-0 | RUTG 45 | 55 | 5 | Punt | Punt 47 yds | 21.4% (40% conv) | — | 20.0% | Higher-WP option: Go | −1.4 |
| RUTG | Q1 | 1:46 | 0-7 | MICH 28 | 28 | 8 | FG | FG good | 11.6% (32% conv) | 11.7% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| MICH | Q2 | 7:50 | 14-10 | RUTG 30 | 30 | 6 | FG | FG missed | 82.7% (37% conv) | 83.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| RUTG | Q2 | 3:21 | 10-14 | MICH 14 | 14 | 2 | FG | FG good | 28.7% (57% conv) | 24.6% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −4.1 |
| MICH | Q2 | 1:35 | 14-13 | MICH 20 | 80 | 15 | Punt | Punt 50 yds | 57.7% (23% conv) | — | 63.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| RUTG | Q2 | 0:59 | 13-14 | RUTG 34 | 66 | 6 | Punt | Punt 45 yds, out of bounds | 26.2% (37% conv) | — | 26.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| RUTG | Q3 | 7:51 | 13-21 | RUTG 28 | 72 | 7 | Punt | Punt 19 yds, out of bounds | 8.9% (34% conv) | — | 9.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| MICH | Q3 | 3:11 | 21-13 | RUTG 16 | 16 | 4 | FG | FG missed | 91.3% (44% conv) | 91.7% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| RUTG | Q3 | 1:02 | 13-21 | RUTG 24 | 76 | 6 | Punt | Punt 48 yds, fair catch | 8.7% (37% conv) | — | 8.9% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| MICH | Q4 | 14:04 | 21-13 | MICH 35 | 65 | 3 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, returned | 85.5% (50% conv) | — | 86.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| RUTG | Q4 | 3:17 | 21-28 | RUTG 42 | 58 | 8 | Punt | Punt 37 yds, fair catch | 5.6% (32% conv) | — | 5.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.5 |
1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.
Two-point tries
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Play | Score after (team-opp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | Q4 | 11:43 | Pass, Good | 21-21 |
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 MICH 14–13 RUTG; at the end MICH 14–13 RUTG. Snaps: MICH 7, RUTG 6.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 1:54 | 3 | Punt |
| RUTG | 1:27 | 6 | Punt |
| MICH | 0:52 | 4 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 MICH 28–21 RUTG; at the end MICH 28–21 RUTG. Snaps: MICH 2, RUTG 0.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 1:48 | 2 | End of Half |
Replay reviews & challenges
No replay reviews or coach's challenges are recorded in the public play-by-play feeds for this game.
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →