Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Fri, Oct 30, 6:30 PM CT
BAY @ UCF
Baylor41
UCFB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
21 4th downs · 21 graded · 21 matched · 4 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | Q1 | 12:45 | 0-0 | BAY 27 | 73 | 20 | Punt | Punt 50 yds, fair catch | 52.1% (19% conv) | — | 56.4% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q1 | 10:48 | 0-0 | UCF 14 | 86 | 9 | Punt | Punt 40 yds, fair catch | 28.6% (30% conv) | — | 30.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| BAY | Q1 | 8:03 | 0-0 | UCF 24 | 24 | 2 | Go | Turnover on downs | 68.1% (57% conv) | 65.8% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q1 | 2:04 | 0-7 | UCF 29 | 71 | 8 | Punt | Punt 36 yds, returned | 13.6% (32% conv) | — | 13.6% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BAY | Q2 | 14:15 | 7-0 | UCF 44 | 44 | 9 | Punt | Punt 32 yds, fair catch | 81.1% (30% conv) | 79.8% | 82.7% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q2 | 12:19 | 0-7 | UCF 13 | 87 | 9 | Punt | Punt 57 yds, returned | 11.9% (30% conv) | — | 12.4% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q2 | 3:24 | 0-14 | BAY 21 | 21 | 14 | FG | FG good | 7.0% (23% conv) | 7.2% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BAY | Q2 | 1:44 | 14-3 | UCF 27 | 27 | 5 | FG | FG good | 91.4% (40% conv) | 92.0% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q2 | 1:20 | 3-17 | UCF 15 | 85 | 20 | Punt | Punt 40 yds, fair catch | 3.5% (19% conv) | — | 4.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BAY | Q2 | 0:28 | 17-3 | UCF 12 | 12 | 9 | FG | FG good | 95.5% (30% conv) | 95.9% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q3 | 11:42 | 6-20 | UCF 26 | 74 | 21 | Punt | Punt 37 yds, fair catch | 3.6% (18% conv) | — | 4.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q3 | 8:54 | 6-27 | UCF 25 | 75 | 10 | Punt | Punt 52 yds, out of bounds | 1.0% (28% conv) | — | 1.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q3 | 6:24 | 6-34 | BAY 17 | 17 | 17 | FG | FG good | 0.6% (15% conv) | 0.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.1 |
| BAY | Q3 | 4:22 | 34-9 | BAY 32 | 68 | 6 | Punt | Punt 37 yds, fair catch | 99.1% (37% conv) | — | 99.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q3 | 3:12 | 9-34 | UCF 34 | 66 | 7 | Go | Turnover on downs | 0.6% (34% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BAY | Q3 | 0:14 | 34-9 | UCF 33 | 33 | 24 | FG | FG missed | 99.5% (17% conv) | 99.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q4 | 14:10 | 9-34 | UCF 35 | 65 | 8 | Go | Turnover on downs | 0.5% (32% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q4 | 11:03 | 9-41 | UCF 26 | 74 | 7 | Punt | Punt 49 yds, fair catch | 0.5% (34% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BAY | Q4 | 9:28 | 41-9 | BAY 32 | 68 | 3 | Punt | Punt 45 yds, returned | 99.5% (50% conv) | — | 99.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UCF | Q4 | 3:19 | 9-41 | BAY 5 | 5 | 1 | Go | Turnover on downs | 0.5% (69% conv) | 0.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BAY | Q4 | 1:04 | 41-9 | BAY 14 | 86 | 1 | Punt | Punt 43 yds | 99.5% (69% conv) | — | 99.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
2 4th-down snaps wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 BAY 14–3 UCF; at the end BAY 20–6 UCF. Snaps: BAY 8, UCF 8.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 1:55 | 3 | Field Goal |
| UCF | 1:40 | 4 | Punt |
| BAY | 1:14 | 5 | Field Goal |
| UCF | 0:28 | 4 | Field Goal |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 BAY 41–9 UCF; at the end BAY 41–9 UCF. Snaps: BAY 2, UCF 4.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 1:53 | 2 | Punt |
| UCF | 0:52 | 4 | Fumble |
Replay reviews & challenges
No replay reviews or coach's challenges are recorded in the public play-by-play feeds for this game.
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →