Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM CT
CAL @ NCSU
California10
NC StateB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
20 4th downs · 20 graded · 18 matched · 3 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | Q1 | 11:29 | 0-7 | CAL 29 | 71 | 6 | Punt | Punt 45 yds, returned | 8.9% (37% conv) | — | 8.4% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.4 |
| NCSU | Q1 | 10:42 | 7-0 | NCSU 34 | 66 | 12 | Punt | Punt 50 yds, fair catch | 85.4% (26% conv) | — | 87.3% | Right call | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q1 | 8:50 | 0-7 | CAL 24 | 76 | 2 | Punt | Punt 45 yds | 10.1% (57% conv) | — | 8.4% | Higher-WP option: Go | −1.7 |
| NCSU | Q1 | 8:03 | 7-0 | NCSU 34 | 66 | 7 | Punt | Punt 21 yds, out of bounds | 85.6% (34% conv) | — | 86.9% | Right call | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q1 | 7:02 | 0-7 | CAL 47 | 53 | 8 | Punt | Punt 37 yds | 10.4% (32% conv) | — | 10.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.4 |
| NCSU | Q1 | 4:03 | 7-0 | NCSU 20 | 80 | 3 | Punt | Punt 48 yds, fair catch | 84.8% (50% conv) | — | 85.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q1 | 1:03 | 0-7 | NCSU 47 | 47 | 8 | Punt | Punt 45 yds | 11.7% (32% conv) | 9.4% | 11.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.4 |
| NCSU | Q1 | 0:36 | 7-0 | NCSU 2 | 98 | 10 | Punt | Punt 60 yds, out of bounds | 79.3% (28% conv) | — | 82.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q2 | 13:19 | 0-7 | NCSU 47 | 47 | 3 | Go | Turnover on downs | 13.7% (50% conv) | 9.7% | 11.7% | Right call | 0.0 |
| NCSU | Q2 | 9:28 | 7-0 | CAL 26 | 26 | 17 | FG | FG good | 86.9% (21% conv) | 89.0% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q2 | 2:47 | 7-10 | NCSU 22 | 22 | 13 | FG | FG missed | 27.8% (24% conv) | 29.8% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| NCSU | Q2 | 1:41 | 10-7 | NCSU 31 | 69 | 1 | Punt | Punt 47 yds, returned | 73.9% (69% conv) | — | 70.3% | Higher-WP option: Go | −3.7 |
| CAL | Q2 | 0:00 | 7-10 | NCSU 20 | 20 | 6 | FG | FG good | 31.9% (37% conv) | 32.2% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q3 | 13:34 | 10-10 | CAL 30 | 70 | 5 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, out of bounds | 32.4% (40% conv) | — | 32.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q3 | 5:49 | 10-17 | CAL 46 | 54 | 5 | Punt | Punt 38 yds, out of bounds | 14.5% (40% conv) | — | 13.8% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.7 |
| CAL | Q4 | 12:11 | 10-24 | CAL 28 | 72 | 6 | Punt | Punt 62 yds, out of bounds | 2.6% (37% conv) | — | 2.6% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q4 | 7:41 | 10-31 | CAL 42 | 58 | 3 | Go | Turnover on downs | 0.6% (50% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NCSU | Q4 | 5:38 | 31-10 | CAL 31 | 31 | 8 | FG | FG missed | 99.5% (32% conv) | 99.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NCSU | Q4 | 1:55 | 31-10 | NCSU 33 | 67 | 3 | Punt | Punt 52 yds, fair catch | 99.5% (50% conv) | — | 99.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| CAL | Q4 | 0:47 | 10-31 | CAL 31 | 69 | 1 | Go | Converted (5 yds) | 0.5% (69% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 CAL 7–10 NCSU; at the end CAL 10–10 NCSU. Snaps: CAL 9, NCSU 2.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 1:49 | 2 | Punt |
| CAL | 1:34 | 9 | Field Goal |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 CAL 10–31 NCSU; at the end CAL 10–31 NCSU. Snaps: CAL 8, NCSU 1.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCSU | 1:55 | 1 | Punt |
| CAL | 1:47 | 8 | End of Half |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 | 4:58 | Review: upheld |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →