Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM CT
CCU @ GAST
Coastal31
Georgia StB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
17 4th downs · 17 graded · 15 matched · 4 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | Q1 | 11:28 | 0-0 | GAST 39 | 39 | 1 | Go | Converted (3 yds) | 40.8% (69% conv) | 33.0% | 33.6% | Right call | 0.0 |
| CCU | Q1 | 9:05 | 0-0 | GAST 25 | 25 | 17 | FG | FG missed | 35.7% (21% conv) | 38.7% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| GAST | Q1 | 3:28 | 0-0 | CCU 35 | 35 | 3 | Go | Converted (19 yds) | 66.9% (50% conv) | 64.5% | 64.7% | Right call | 0.0 |
| GAST | Q1 | 2:12 | 0-0 | CCU 14 | 14 | 8 | FG | FG good | 68.2% (32% conv) | 69.5% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| CCU | Q2 | 14:05 | 0-3 | CCU 29 | 71 | 12 | Punt | Punt 48 yds, returned | 20.5% (26% conv) | — | 21.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| GAST | Q2 | 12:58 | 3-0 | GAST 16 | 84 | 6 | Punt | Punt 14 yds, out of bounds | 64.3% (37% conv) | — | 66.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| CCU | Q2 | 11:34 | 0-3 | GAST 21 | 21 | 1 | Go | Converted (1 yds) | 37.4% (69% conv) | 31.7% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| GAST | Q2 | 9:22 | 3-7 | GAST 16 | 84 | 19 | Punt | Punt 45 yds, fair catch | 31.8% (20% conv) | — | 35.9% | Right call | 0.0 |
| CCU | Q2 | 7:08 | 7-3 | GAST 35 | 35 | 4 | FG | FG good | 59.3% (44% conv) | 57.7% | 58.0% | Higher-WP option: Go | −1.6 |
| GAST | Q2 | 5:46 | 3-10 | CCU 14 | 14 | 7 | FG | FG missed | 37.6% (34% conv) | 37.2% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.4 |
| GAST | Q2 | 0:00 | 3-17 | CCU 14 | 14 | 9 | FG | FG good | 13.8% (30% conv) | 13.0% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.9 |
| GAST | Q3 | 12:21 | 6-17 | CCU 49 | 49 | 9 | Punt | Punt 35 yds, fair catch | 14.3% (30% conv) | — | 14.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| GAST | Q3 | 9:33 | 6-17 | CCU 46 | 46 | 15 | Punt | Punt 26 yds, fair catch | 13.0% (23% conv) | 11.3% | 13.8% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| GAST | Q3 | 3:08 | 6-24 | GAST 16 | 84 | 14 | Punt | Punt 54 yds, returned | 1.8% (23% conv) | — | 2.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| CCU | Q4 | 5:15 | 31-20 | CCU 14 | 86 | 21 | Punt | Punt 34 yds, fair catch | 85.9% (18% conv) | — | 90.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| GAST | Q4 | 3:12 | 20-31 | CCU 45 | 45 | 18 | Go | Turnover on downs | 3.6% (20% conv) | 1.5% | 5.0% | Higher-WP option: Punt | −1.4 |
| CCU | Q4 | 1:05 | 31-20 | GAST 43 | 43 | 9 | Punt | Punt 28 yds, fair catch | 99.5% (30% conv) | 99.5% | 99.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
2 4th-down snaps wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.
Two-point tries
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Play | Score after (team-opp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | Q4 | 11:59 | Pass, Good | 14-31 |
| GAST | Q4 | 7:38 | Pass, No good | 20-31 |
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 CCU 10–3 GAST; at the end CCU 17–6 GAST. Snaps: CCU 1, GAST 11.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 1:51 | 1 | Touchdown |
| GAST | 1:40 | 11 | Field Goal |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 CCU 31–20 GAST; at the end CCU 31–20 GAST. Snaps: CCU 2, GAST 7.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 1:50 | 2 | Punt |
| GAST | 1:01 | 7 | End of Game |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 9:31 | Review: overturned |
| Q3 | 12:28 | Review: overturned |
| Q3 | 7:55 | Review: upheld |
| Q4 | 9:12 | Review: overturned |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →
