Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM CT

CONN @ AFA

Week 9 reports › FBS

UConn26

FINAL

Air Force

Final26–35CONN at AFA

B1G+A pregame52%AFA win chance at kickoff

4th-down decisions1414 graded · 13 matched the higher-WP option

Plays tracked138from public play-by-play feeds

B1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME

Final

▲ AFA win chance▼ CONN

Red racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.

4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS

14 4th downs · 14 graded · 13 matched · 8 go

Every 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.

Team	Qtr	Clock	Score (off-def)	Field position	Yds to goal	To go	Call	Result	Go WP	FG WP	Punt WP	Verdict	Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts)
CONN	Q1	14:08	0-0	CONN 26	74	9	Punt	Punt 29 yds, out of bounds	39.6% (30% conv)	—	41.2%	Right call	0.0
CONN	Q1	5:21	0-7	AF 30	30	6	Go	Turnover on downs	25.3% (37% conv)	24.9%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
AFA	Q1	4:00	7-0	AF 32	68	8	Punt	Punt 68 yds, touchback	71.3% (32% conv)	—	73.5%	Right call	0.0
CONN	Q1	2:12	0-7	CONN 20	80	10	Punt	Punt 47 yds, fair catch	16.7% (28% conv)	—	17.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
AFA	Q2	7:38	14-7	CONN 23	23	2	Go	Converted (4 yds)	82.2% (57% conv)	81.0%	—	Right call	0.0
AFA	Q3	13:02	21-14	AF 32	68	3	Punt	Punt 41 yds, out of bounds	75.5% (50% conv)	—	75.8%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
CONN	Q3	12:14	14-21	CONN 25	75	12	Punt	Punt 56 yds, fair catch	15.0% (26% conv)	—	16.3%	Right call	0.0
AFA	Q3	8:00	21-14	CONN 46	46	6	Go	Converted (19 yds)	78.5% (37% conv)	75.1%	80.3%	Higher-WP option: Punt	−1.8
AFA	Q3	3:13	21-14	CONN 5	5	1	Go	Converted (1 yds)	90.6% (69% conv)	86.8%	—	Right call	0.0
AFA	Q3	0:40	28-20	AF 27	73	8	Punt	Punt 60 yds, muffed, receiving team kept it	77.6% (32% conv)	—	81.8%	Right call	0.0
AFA	Q4	7:16	28-26	CONN 24	24	1	Go	Converted (2 yds)	81.0% (69% conv)	78.0%	—	Right call	0.0
AFA	Q4	3:09	35-26	CONN 1	1	1	Go	Converted (TD)	99.5% (60% conv)	99.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
CONN	Q4	2:07	26-35	CONN 41	59	20	Go	Turnover on downs	0.5% (19% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
AFA	Q4	0:21	35-26	CONN 30	30	9	Go	Turnover on downs	99.5% (30% conv)	99.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0

1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.

Two-point tries

Team	Qtr	Clock	Play	Score after (team-opp)
CONN	Q4	14:46	Pass, No good	26-28

Clock management · final 2:00 of each half

End of 1st half

Score at 2:00 CONN 7–21 AFA; at the end CONN 14–21 AFA. Snaps: CONN 1, AFA 4.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
CONN	1:56	1	Touchdown
AFA	1:50	4	End of Half

End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)

Score at 2:00 CONN 26–35 AFA; at the end CONN 26–35 AFA. Snaps: CONN 1, AFA 5.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
AFA	1:56	5	Downs
CONN	0:19	1	End of Game

Replay reviews & challenges

Qtr	Clock	Review
Q4	3:13	Review: upheld

From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.

Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →