Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM CT
JXST @ NMSU
Jax State24
New Mexico StB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
12 4th downs · 12 graded · 10 matched · 5 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | Q1 | 4:39 | 0-0 | JXST 13 | 13 | 5 | FG | FG missed | 43.8% (40% conv) | 42.4% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −1.4 |
| JXST | Q2 | 14:25 | 0-0 | NMSU 31 | 31 | 2 | Go | Converted (7 yds) | 67.9% (57% conv) | 64.9% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| NMSU | Q2 | 10:35 | 0-7 | NMSU 34 | 66 | 1 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, returned | 16.6% (69% conv) | — | 12.9% | Higher-WP option: Go | −3.7 |
| JXST | Q2 | 6:51 | 7-0 | NMSU 19 | 19 | 2 | Go | Turnover on downs | 87.8% (57% conv) | 87.0% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NMSU | Q2 | 3:33 | 0-7 | NMSU 37 | 63 | 8 | Punt | Punt 40 yds, fair catch | 14.1% (32% conv) | — | 14.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| JXST | Q2 | 0:36 | 7-0 | NMSU 47 | 47 | 6 | Punt | Punt 46 yds | 81.7% (37% conv) | 78.6% | 83.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| NMSU | Q3 | 13:45 | 0-7 | NMSU 13 | 87 | 22 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, fair catch | 10.1% (18% conv) | — | 11.7% | Right call | 0.0 |
| JXST | Q3 | 10:08 | 7-0 | NMSU 31 | 31 | 5 | FG | FG good | 84.7% (40% conv) | 85.2% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NMSU | Q3 | 7:15 | 0-10 | JXST 38 | 38 | 5 | Go | Turnover on downs | 11.5% (40% conv) | 10.4% | 10.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| JXST | Q3 | 4:05 | 10-0 | NMSU 34 | 34 | 3 | Go | Intercepted | 91.7% (50% conv) | 91.3% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NMSU | Q4 | 12:47 | 0-17 | JXST 16 | 16 | 8 | FG | FG missed | 3.1% (32% conv) | 2.9% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.3 |
| NMSU | Q4 | 2:00 | 0-24 | NMSU 49 | 51 | 11 | Go | Turnover on downs | 0.5% (27% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 JXST 7–0 NMSU; at the end JXST 7–0 NMSU. Snaps: JXST 4, NMSU 3.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 1:53 | 4 | Punt |
| NMSU | 0:32 | 3 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 JXST 24–0 NMSU; at the end JXST 24–0 NMSU. Snaps: JXST 7, NMSU 2.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 2:00 | 2 | Downs |
| JXST | 2:00 | 7 | End of Game |
Replay reviews & challenges
No replay reviews or coach's challenges are recorded in the public play-by-play feeds for this game.
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →