Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 2:30 PM CT
KU @ TCU
Kansas16
TCUB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
20 4th downs · 20 graded · 19 matched · 4 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | Q1 | 13:26 | 0-0 | TCU 47 | 53 | 9 | Punt | Punt 42 yds, out of bounds | 61.9% (30% conv) | — | 63.6% | Right call | 0.0 |
| KU | Q1 | 11:52 | 0-0 | KU 19 | 81 | 2 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, muffed, kicking team recovered | 30.9% (57% conv) | — | 27.6% | Higher-WP option: Go | −3.3 |
| KU | Q1 | 8:40 | 0-0 | TCU 8 | 8 | 8 | FG | FG missed | 40.0% (24% conv) | 41.6% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| TCU | Q1 | 7:18 | 0-0 | TCU 21 | 79 | 9 | Punt | Punt 42 yds | 54.8% (30% conv) | — | 57.4% | Right call | 0.0 |
| KU | Q1 | 1:32 | 0-0 | TCU 16 | 16 | 5 | FG | FG good | 43.7% (40% conv) | 43.2% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.5 |
| TCU | Q1 | 0:01 | 0-3 | TCU 27 | 73 | 4 | Punt | Punt 33 yds | 44.5% (44% conv) | — | 43.7% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.7 |
| KU | Q2 | 13:34 | 3-0 | KU 39 | 61 | 11 | Punt | Punt 42 yds, returned | 43.9% (27% conv) | — | 46.3% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TCU | Q2 | 10:39 | 0-3 | TCU 48 | 52 | 8 | Punt | Punt 31 yds, out of bounds | 45.2% (32% conv) | — | 46.4% | Right call | 0.0 |
| KU | Q2 | 6:25 | 3-0 | TCU 24 | 24 | 8 | FG | FG good | 55.9% (32% conv) | 58.3% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| TCU | Q2 | 5:28 | 0-6 | TCU 23 | 77 | 7 | Punt | Punt 50 yds, fair catch | 27.0% (34% conv) | — | 27.8% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TCU | Q2 | 0:03 | 0-13 | KU 2 | 2 | 2 | Go | Turnover on downs | 19.6% (47% conv) | 15.5% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| KU | Q3 | 12:59 | 13-0 | KU 31 | 69 | 4 | Punt | Punt 46 yds, out of bounds | 85.9% (44% conv) | — | 86.9% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TCU | Q3 | 11:50 | 0-13 | TCU 26 | 74 | 7 | Punt | Punt 52 yds, returned | 8.2% (34% conv) | — | 8.2% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| KU | Q3 | 7:31 | 13-0 | TCU 2 | 2 | 2 | Go | Turnover on downs | 94.2% (47% conv) | 93.6% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TCU | Q3 | 6:48 | 0-13 | TCU 4 | 96 | 7 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, returned | 5.4% (34% conv) | — | 5.7% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| KU | Q3 | 4:38 | 13-0 | TCU 39 | 39 | 5 | Go | Turnover returned for TD | 91.5% (40% conv) | 91.2% | 92.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.8 |
| KU | Q3 | 1:41 | 13-7 | KU 49 | 51 | 8 | Punt | Punt 35 yds, returned | 70.3% (32% conv) | — | 74.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TCU | Q4 | 10:34 | 14-13 | TCU 37 | 63 | 7 | Punt | Punt 55 yds, out of bounds | 50.7% (34% conv) | — | 55.6% | Right call | 0.0 |
| KU | Q4 | 8:02 | 13-14 | TCU 33 | 33 | 1 | Go | Converted (7 yds) | 55.0% (69% conv) | 47.9% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| KU | Q4 | 4:59 | 13-14 | TCU 9 | 9 | 7 | FG | FG good | 50.5% (34% conv) | 52.0% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.
Two-point tries
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Play | Score after (team-opp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | Q4 | 1:11 | Pass, Good | 22-16 |
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 KU 13–0 TCU; at the end KU 13–0 TCU. Snaps: KU 1, TCU 8.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 1:37 | 8 | Downs |
| KU | 0:01 | 1 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 KU 16–14 TCU; at the end KU 16–22 TCU. Snaps: KU 7, TCU 5.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 1:54 | 5 | Touchdown |
| KU | 0:49 | 7 | End of Game |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 | 0:03 | Review: upheld |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →