Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM CT

ORST @ FRES

Week 9 reports › FBS

Oregon St22

FINAL

Fresno St

Final22–38ORST at FRES

B1G+A pregame40%FRES win chance at kickoff

4th-down decisions1515 graded · 14 matched the higher-WP option

Plays tracked152from public play-by-play feeds

B1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME

Final

▲ FRES win chance▼ ORST

Red racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.

4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS

15 4th downs · 15 graded · 14 matched · 5 go

Every 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.

Team	Qtr	Clock	Score (off-def)	Field position	Yds to goal	To go	Call	Result	Go WP	FG WP	Punt WP	Verdict	Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts)
ORST	Q1	11:36	0-0	FRES 3	3	3	Go	Turnover on downs	67.0% (40% conv)	65.7%	—	Right call	0.0
FRES	Q1	9:29	0-0	FRES 12	88	1	Punt	Punt 39 yds, fair catch	38.1% (69% conv)	—	32.8%	Higher-WP option: Go	−5.3
ORST	Q1	6:41	0-0	FRES 37	37	6	FG	FG good	58.3% (37% conv)	57.6%	58.1%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.7
ORST	Q2	11:55	3-7	FRES 10	10	10	FG	FG good	43.5% (21% conv)	46.3%	—	Right call	0.0
ORST	Q2	5:56	6-14	FRES 11	11	11	FG	FG good	26.4% (20% conv)	28.3%	—	Right call	0.0
ORST	Q3	12:40	9-21	ORST 28	72	8	Punt	Punt 36 yds, fair catch	8.8% (32% conv)	—	9.0%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
FRES	Q3	10:00	21-9	ORST 12	12	5	FG	FG good	91.9% (40% conv)	92.2%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ORST	Q3	0:02	16-38	ORST 2	98	33	Punt	Punt 53 yds, returned	0.6% (14% conv)	—	0.6%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
FRES	Q4	12:26	38-16	ORST 26	26	4	FG	FG missed	99.3% (44% conv)	99.4%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ORST	Q4	11:04	16-38	ORST 28	72	8	Go	Converted (16 yds)	0.6% (32% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ORST	Q4	9:21	16-38	FRES 21	21	7	Go	Turnover on downs	0.9% (34% conv)	0.9%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
FRES	Q4	7:42	38-16	FRES 22	78	9	Punt	Punt 43 yds, fair catch	98.9% (30% conv)	—	99.4%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ORST	Q4	7:02	16-38	ORST 42	58	3	Go	Turnover on downs	0.6% (50% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
FRES	Q4	4:41	38-16	ORST 49	49	16	Punt	Punt 49 yds, touchback	99.5% (22% conv)	—	99.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ORST	Q4	2:38	16-38	FRES 38	38	5	Go	Converted (10 yds)	0.5% (40% conv)	0.5%	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0

1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.

Two-point tries

Team	Qtr	Clock	Play	Score after (team-opp)
ORST	Q4	1:45	Pass, No good	22-38

Clock management · final 2:00 of each half

End of 1st half

Score at 2:00 ORST 9–14 FRES; at the end ORST 9–21 FRES. Snaps: ORST 10, FRES 2.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
FRES	1:54	1	Touchdown
ORST	1:47	10	Fumble
FRES	0:12	1	End of Half

End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)

Score at 2:00 ORST 16–38 FRES; at the end ORST 22–38 FRES. Snaps: ORST 3, FRES 5.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
ORST	1:56	3	Touchdown
FRES	1:39	5	End of Half

Replay reviews & challenges

Qtr	Clock	Review
Q4	4:41	Review: overturned

From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.

Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →