Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 2:15 PM CT

STAN @ LOU

Week 9 reports › FBS

Stanford24

FINAL

Louisville

Final24–52STAN at LOU

B1G+A pregame94%LOU win chance at kickoff

4th-down decisions1818 graded · 17 matched the higher-WP option

Plays tracked140from public play-by-play feeds

B1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME

Final

▲ LOU win chance▼ STAN

Red racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.

4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS

18 4th downs · 18 graded · 17 matched · 9 go

Every 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.

Team	Qtr	Clock	Score (off-def)	Field position	Yds to goal	To go	Call	Result	Go WP	FG WP	Punt WP	Verdict	Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts)
STAN	Q1	10:13	0-7	STAN 40	60	7	Punt	Punt 43 yds, returned	1.9% (34% conv)	—	1.8%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.1
LOU	Q1	6:42	7-0	STAN 19	19	3	Go	Turnover on downs	98.0% (50% conv)	98.0%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q1	4:50	0-7	STAN 45	55	1	Go	Converted (2 yds)	3.2% (69% conv)	—	2.3%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q1	2:52	0-7	LOU 47	47	4	Go	Turnover on downs	3.2% (44% conv)	2.2%	2.7%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q2	13:35	0-7	LOU 30	30	6	FG	FG good	4.2% (37% conv)	4.0%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.2
LOU	Q2	11:15	7-3	LOU 13	87	5	Punt	Punt 37 yds, fair catch	90.2% (40% conv)	—	91.2%	Right call	0.0
LOU	Q2	1:46	14-17	STAN 17	17	1	FG	FG good	81.3% (69% conv)	78.1%	—	Higher-WP option: Go	−3.3
STAN	Q2	1:02	17-17	STAN 9	91	26	Punt	Punt blocked	10.7% (16% conv)	—	12.7%	Right call	0.0
STAN	Q3	12:46	17-24	LOU 40	40	1	Go	Converted (TD)	9.3% (69% conv)	6.5%	6.7%	Right call	0.0
STAN	Q3	9:17	24-31	STAN 29	71	6	Punt	Punt 54 yds, returned	6.0% (37% conv)	—	5.9%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.1
LOU	Q3	5:41	31-24	STAN 23	23	7	FG	FG missed	92.6% (34% conv)	93.6%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q3	1:55	24-44	STAN 31	69	4	Go	Intercepted	0.7% (44% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q4	12:59	24-51	LOU 43	43	4	Go	Converted (24 yds)	0.5% (44% conv)	0.5%	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q4	10:13	24-51	LOU 25	25	16	Go	Turnover on downs	0.5% (22% conv)	0.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q4	8:26	24-46	STAN 31	69	4	Punt	Punt 43 yds, fair catch	0.5% (44% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
LOU	Q4	5:59	52-24	LOU 35	65	1	Punt	Punt 44 yds, returned	99.5% (69% conv)	—	99.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q4	2:04	24-52	50	50	1	Go	Converted (8 yds)	0.5% (69% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
STAN	Q4	0:11	24-52	LOU 34	34	2	Go	Turnover on downs	0.5% (57% conv)	0.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0

Two-point tries

No two-point tries in this game.

Clock management · final 2:00 of each half

End of 1st half

Score at 2:00 STAN 17–14 LOU; at the end STAN 17–24 LOU. Snaps: STAN 5, LOU 7.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
LOU	1:51	2	Field Goal
STAN	1:33	4	Punt
LOU	0:46	5	Touchdown
STAN	0:15	1	End of Half

End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)

Score at 2:00 STAN 24–52 LOU; at the end STAN 24–52 LOU. Snaps: STAN 4, LOU 1.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
STAN	1:52	4	Downs
LOU	0:03	1	End of Game

Replay reviews & challenges

Qtr	Clock	Review
Q2	6:11	Review: upheld
Q2	3:38	Review: upheld

From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.

Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →