Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Thu, Oct 29, 6:30 PM CT
TROY @ JMU
Troy24
James MadisonB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
20 4th downs · 20 graded · 17 matched · 6 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | Q1 | 13:05 | 0-0 | JMU 41 | 41 | 4 | Go | Turnover on downs | 14.1% (44% conv) | 11.9% | 12.4% | Right call | 0.0 |
| JMU | Q1 | 8:57 | 0-0 | TROY 2 | 2 | 2 | Go | Converted | 89.7% (47% conv) | 88.9% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q1 | 6:10 | 0-7 | TROY 22 | 78 | 13 | Punt | Punt blocked | 3.9% (24% conv) | — | 4.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q2 | 7:40 | 7-21 | TROY 32 | 68 | 3 | Punt | Punt 42 yds, returned | 2.3% (50% conv) | — | 1.9% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.3 |
| JMU | Q2 | 5:51 | 21-7 | JMU 37 | 63 | 8 | Punt | Punt 40 yds, returned | 96.5% (32% conv) | — | 97.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q2 | 4:04 | 7-21 | TROY 24 | 76 | 11 | Punt | Punt 56 yds, returned | 1.9% (27% conv) | — | 2.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q2 | 1:44 | 7-21 | TROY 47 | 53 | 5 | Punt | Punt 42 yds, returned | 2.8% (40% conv) | — | 2.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.3 |
| TROY | Q2 | 0:43 | 7-21 | JMU 38 | 38 | 3 | Go | Turnover on downs | 3.6% (50% conv) | 2.9% | 2.9% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| JMU | Q2 | 0:21 | 21-7 | JMU 38 | 62 | 10 | Punt | Punt 40 yds, fair catch | 96.1% (28% conv) | — | 96.8% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| JMU | Q3 | 13:47 | 21-14 | JMU 28 | 72 | 7 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, fair catch | 86.2% (34% conv) | — | 88.2% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q3 | 11:31 | 14-21 | TROY 37 | 63 | 4 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, returned | 9.6% (44% conv) | — | 8.7% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.8 |
| JMU | Q3 | 10:20 | 21-14 | JMU 26 | 74 | 6 | Punt | Punt 39 yds, fair catch | 84.8% (37% conv) | — | 86.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q3 | 9:10 | 14-21 | TROY 38 | 62 | 7 | Punt | Punt 47 yds, fair catch | 9.4% (34% conv) | — | 9.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.1 |
| JMU | Q3 | 0:31 | 21-21 | TROY 37 | 37 | 10 | Punt | Punt 26 yds | 61.1% (28% conv) | 62.9% | 65.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q4 | 11:49 | 21-21 | JMU 48 | 48 | 4 | Go | Turnover on downs | 42.1% (44% conv) | 33.1% | 42.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.3 |
| JMU | Q4 | 9:14 | 21-21 | TROY 40 | 40 | 8 | Punt | Punt 32 yds, fair catch | 56.4% (32% conv) | 56.6% | 61.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TROY | Q4 | 3:21 | 21-21 | JMU 30 | 30 | 4 | FG | FG missed | 33.7% (44% conv) | 32.0% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −1.6 |
| JMU | Q4 | 0:06 | 21-21 | TROY 37 | 37 | 10 | Go | Turnover on downs | 50.0% (28% conv) | 74.1% | 50.0% | Higher-WP option: FG | −24.1 |
| JMU | OT | 0:00 | 21-21 | TROY 5 | 5 | 1 | Go | Turnover on downs | 55.4% (69% conv) | 58.6% | — | Higher-WP option: FG | −3.1 |
| TROY | OT | 0:00 | 21-21 | JMU 9 | 9 | 6 | FG | FG good | 54.7% (37% conv) | 58.5% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 TROY 7–21 JMU; at the end TROY 7–21 JMU. Snaps: TROY 8, JMU 7.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 1:59 | 3 | Punt |
| JMU | 1:38 | 3 | Interception |
| TROY | 1:05 | 4 | Downs |
| JMU | 0:33 | 4 | Punt |
| TROY | 0:19 | 1 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 TROY 21–21 JMU; at the end TROY 21–21 JMU. Snaps: TROY 0, JMU 7.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 1:53 | 7 | Downs |
Replay reviews & challenges
No replay reviews or coach's challenges are recorded in the public play-by-play feeds for this game.
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →