Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM CT
UAB @ USF
UAB10
South FloridaB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
19 4th downs · 19 graded · 18 matched · 4 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | Q1 | 8:28 | 0-7 | USF 21 | 79 | 14 | Punt | Punt 34 yds, fair catch | 45.6% (23% conv) | — | 49.1% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q1 | 3:49 | 7-0 | USF 12 | 12 | 11 | FG | FG good | 52.8% (27% conv) | 54.1% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| USF | Q1 | 0:59 | 0-10 | USF 44 | 56 | 1 | Go | Turnover on downs | 41.6% (69% conv) | — | 35.0% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q2 | 12:14 | 10-0 | USF 23 | 23 | 1 | FG | FG missed | 74.0% (69% conv) | 70.0% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −4.1 |
| USF | Q2 | 5:03 | 0-10 | UAB 13 | 13 | 10 | FG | FG good | 35.9% (28% conv) | 35.9% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.1 |
| UAB | Q2 | 3:31 | 10-3 | UAB 15 | 85 | 20 | Punt | Punt 52 yds, returned | 45.3% (19% conv) | — | 51.2% | Right call | 0.0 |
| USF | Q3 | 11:59 | 17-10 | USF 46 | 54 | 16 | Punt | Punt 47 yds, fair catch | 84.7% (22% conv) | — | 87.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q3 | 10:00 | 10-17 | UAB 10 | 90 | 7 | Punt | Punt 47 yds, fair catch | 7.9% (34% conv) | — | 8.2% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| USF | Q3 | 4:53 | 17-10 | UAB 12 | 12 | 4 | FG | FG good | 90.9% (44% conv) | 90.9% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q3 | 2:49 | 10-20 | UAB 28 | 72 | 3 | Punt | Punt 59 yds, returned | 6.5% (50% conv) | — | 5.8% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.7 |
| USF | Q3 | 1:15 | 20-10 | USF 26 | 74 | 8 | Punt | Punt 48 yds, fair catch | 88.0% (32% conv) | — | 90.6% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q4 | 14:55 | 10-20 | UAB 22 | 78 | 14 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, fair catch | 4.8% (23% conv) | — | 5.4% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| USF | Q4 | 12:44 | 20-10 | USF 36 | 64 | 11 | Punt | Punt 49 yds, returned | 88.9% (27% conv) | — | 91.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q4 | 11:45 | 10-27 | UAB 32 | 68 | 3 | Go | Converted (4 yds) | 1.4% (50% conv) | — | 1.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q4 | 11:45 | 10-27 | USF 44 | 44 | 5 | Go | Converted (15 yds) | 1.9% (40% conv) | 1.4% | 1.7% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q4 | 8:01 | 10-27 | USF 14 | 14 | 9 | FG | FG missed | 3.1% (30% conv) | 2.6% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.5 |
| USF | Q4 | 5:51 | 27-10 | USF 29 | 71 | 1 | Punt | Punt 31 yds, out of bounds | 98.9% (69% conv) | — | 99.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| UAB | Q4 | 4:36 | 10-27 | UAB 33 | 67 | 17 | Go | Turnover on downs | 0.5% (21% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| USF | Q4 | 1:36 | 27-10 | UAB 15 | 15 | 7 | FG | FG good | 99.5% (34% conv) | 99.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 UAB 10–3 USF; at the end UAB 10–17 USF. Snaps: UAB 3, USF 3.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 2:00 | 3 | Touchdown |
| UAB | 0:37 | 1 | Touchdown |
| UAB | 0:37 | 2 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 UAB 10–27 USF; at the end UAB 10–30 USF. Snaps: UAB 3, USF 3.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 2:00 | 3 | Field Goal |
| UAB | 1:31 | 3 | End of Half |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 | 12:19 | Review: upheld |
| Q4 | 12:28 | Review: upheld |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →