Game report · 2026 Week 9 · FBS · Sat, Oct 31, 2:30 PM CT

USM @ ULM

Week 9 reports › FBS

Southern Miss35

FINAL

UL Monroe

Final35–21USM at ULM

B1G+A pregame30%ULM win chance at kickoff

4th-down decisions2121 graded · 18 matched the higher-WP option

Plays tracked164from public play-by-play feeds

B1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME

Final

▲ ULM win chance▼ USM

Red racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.

4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS

21 4th downs · 21 graded · 18 matched · 6 go

Every 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.

Team	Qtr	Clock	Score (off-def)	Field position	Yds to goal	To go	Call	Result	Go WP	FG WP	Punt WP	Verdict	Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts)
USM	Q1	6:21	0-0	ULM 37	37	4	Go	Turnover on downs	68.5% (44% conv)	66.7%	67.4%	Right call	0.0
ULM	Q1	4:49	0-0	ULM 44	56	3	Punt	Punt 45 yds, fair catch	33.4% (50% conv)	—	30.5%	Higher-WP option: Go	−2.8
USM	Q1	4:03	0-0	USM 11	89	10	Punt	Punt 54 yds	54.0% (28% conv)	—	57.6%	Right call	0.0
ULM	Q1	1:53	0-0	ULM 43	57	2	Punt	Punt 43 yds, fair catch	35.5% (57% conv)	—	31.4%	Higher-WP option: Go	−4.1
USM	Q1	0:05	0-0	USM 36	64	1	Go	Converted (6 yds)	65.9% (69% conv)	—	60.7%	Right call	0.0
USM	Q2	12:48	0-0	ULM 33	33	2	Go	Converted (TD)	69.1% (57% conv)	65.8%	—	Right call	0.0
ULM	Q2	8:45	0-7	USM 24	24	9	FG	FG missed	16.9% (30% conv)	17.6%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
USM	Q2	6:51	7-0	USM 19	81	15	Punt	Punt 47 yds, fair catch	76.8% (23% conv)	—	80.8%	Right call	0.0
ULM	Q2	2:37	0-7	ULM 43	57	14	Punt	Punt 40 yds, fair catch	12.6% (23% conv)	—	13.4%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
USM	Q2	1:00	7-0	USM 31	69	10	Punt	Punt 44 yds, returned	78.9% (28% conv)	—	82.0%	Right call	0.0
USM	Q2	0:17	7-0	ULM 18	18	4	FG	FG good	87.8% (44% conv)	88.3%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
USM	Q3	13:26	10-0	USM 48	52	8	Punt	Punt 35 yds	88.7% (32% conv)	—	90.1%	Right call	0.0
ULM	Q3	9:33	7-17	ULM 41	59	4	Punt	Punt 46 yds, returned	9.1% (44% conv)	—	8.2%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.8
USM	Q3	7:09	17-7	ULM 45	45	5	Punt	Punt 31 yds, fair catch	89.8% (40% conv)	88.0%	90.7%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ULM	Q3	4:43	7-17	ULM 5	95	29	Punt	Punt 48 yds, returned	4.8% (15% conv)	—	6.0%	Right call	0.0
ULM	Q3	3:00	7-24	ULM 32	68	3	Go	Turnover on downs	2.2% (50% conv)	—	1.9%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
USM	Q3	0:38	24-7	ULM 21	21	8	FG	FG good	98.2% (32% conv)	98.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
USM	Q4	10:05	27-14	USM 29	71	6	Punt	Punt 48 yds, fair catch	93.5% (37% conv)	—	95.2%	Right call	0.0
USM	Q4	3:44	27-21	USM 47	53	3	Punt	Punt 35 yds, fair catch	86.5% (50% conv)	—	83.1%	Higher-WP option: Go	−3.4
ULM	Q4	2:25	21-27	ULM 36	64	6	Go	Turnover on downs	9.5% (37% conv)	—	0.5%	Right call	0.0
ULM	Q4	0:53	21-35	ULM 27	73	8	Go	Turnover on downs	0.5% (32% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0

Two-point tries

Team	Qtr	Clock	Play	Score after (team-opp)
USM	Q4	1:52	Pass, Good	35-21

Clock management · final 2:00 of each half

End of 1st half

Score at 2:00 USM 7–0 ULM; at the end USM 10–0 ULM. Snaps: USM 10, ULM 1.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
USM	1:54	6	Fumble
USM	0:55	4	Field Goal
ULM	0:17	1	End of Half

End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)

Score at 2:00 USM 27–21 ULM; at the end USM 35–21 ULM. Snaps: USM 4, ULM 4.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
USM	1:52	1	Touchdown
ULM	1:38	4	Downs
USM	0:46	3	End of Game

Replay reviews & challenges

Qtr	Clock	Review
Q3	13:45	Review: upheld
Q3	3:06	Review: upheld

From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.

Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →