Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM CT
ARIZ @ TTU
22 Arizona26
13 Texas TechB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
19 4th downs · 19 graded · 18 matched · 6 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | Q1 | 11:35 | 0-0 | TTU 18 | 18 | 15 | FG | FG good | 40.5% (23% conv) | 42.6% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q1 | 8:24 | 0-3 | ARIZ 42 | 42 | 2 | Go | Converted (7 yds) | 53.9% (57% conv) | 46.8% | 49.3% | Right call | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q1 | 4:47 | 3-7 | ARIZ 18 | 82 | 17 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, returned | 17.1% (21% conv) | — | 18.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q1 | 2:58 | 7-3 | 50 | 50 | 1 | Go | Turnover on downs | 78.1% (69% conv) | — | 73.9% | Right call | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q1 | 1:21 | 3-7 | TTU 41 | 41 | 3 | Go | Turnover on downs | 27.7% (50% conv) | 23.3% | 24.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q1 | 0:32 | 7-3 | TTU 42 | 58 | 7 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, fair catch | 70.9% (34% conv) | — | 72.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q2 | 14:19 | 3-7 | ARIZ 19 | 81 | 8 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, fair catch | 18.9% (32% conv) | — | 19.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q2 | 11:29 | 7-3 | ARIZ 41 | 41 | 18 | Punt | Punt 33 yds | 71.4% (20% conv) | 72.3% | 74.6% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q2 | 9:03 | 7-10 | TTU 40 | 60 | 7 | Punt | Punt 49 yds, out of bounds | 41.4% (34% conv) | — | 42.2% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q2 | 0:24 | 7-17 | ARIZ 11 | 11 | 3 | FG | FG good | 26.6% (50% conv) | 22.8% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −3.9 |
| TTU | Q3 | 2:33 | 17-23 | ARIZ 27 | 27 | 2 | Go | Converted (TD) | 34.6% (57% conv) | 31.1% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q3 | 1:03 | 23-24 | ARIZ 25 | 75 | 10 | Punt | Punt 50 yds, returned | 30.7% (28% conv) | — | 34.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q4 | 14:43 | 24-23 | ARIZ 24 | 24 | 7 | FG | FG good | 63.4% (34% conv) | 66.4% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q4 | 9:12 | 23-27 | TTU 18 | 18 | 1 | Go | Turnover on downs | 44.5% (69% conv) | 37.4% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q4 | 6:53 | 23-27 | ARIZ 47 | 53 | 20 | Punt | Punt 35 yds | 23.3% (19% conv) | — | 28.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| TTU | Q4 | 4:29 | 27-23 | TTU 28 | 72 | 12 | Punt | Punt 39 yds, fair catch | 67.6% (26% conv) | — | 73.7% | Right call | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q4 | 2:58 | 23-27 | ARIZ 23 | 77 | 20 | Punt | Punt 47 yds, returned | 10.0% (19% conv) | — | 9.9% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q4 | 1:04 | 23-34 | ARIZ 41 | 59 | 11 | Go | Converted (14 yds) | 0.5% (27% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ARIZ | Q4 | 0:22 | 23-34 | TTU 5 | 5 | 3 | FG | FG good | 0.5% (50% conv) | 0.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 ARIZ 10–7 TTU; at the end ARIZ 17–10 TTU. Snaps: ARIZ 2, TTU 9.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 1:56 | 1 | Touchdown |
| TTU | 1:40 | 9 | Field Goal |
| ARIZ | 0:22 | 1 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 ARIZ 23–34 TTU; at the end ARIZ 26–34 TTU. Snaps: ARIZ 13, TTU 1.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 1:58 | 13 | Field Goal |
| TTU | 0:19 | 1 | End of Half |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 1:21 | Review: upheld |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →
