Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 2:30 PM CT
ASU @ BYU
Arizona St20
8 BYUB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
19 4th downs · 19 graded · 18 matched · 6 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | Q1 | 6:01 | 0-7 | BYU 49 | 49 | 18 | Punt | Punt 44 yds, fair catch | 5.0% (20% conv) | — | 5.2% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q1 | 4:22 | 7-0 | BYU 10 | 90 | 5 | Punt | Punt 48 yds, returned | 90.6% (40% conv) | — | 91.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ASU | Q2 | 14:06 | 0-7 | BYU 6 | 6 | 6 | FG | FG good | 9.4% (28% conv) | 8.9% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.5 |
| BYU | Q2 | 12:32 | 7-3 | BYU 31 | 69 | 4 | Punt | Punt 32 yds | 85.6% (44% conv) | — | 86.2% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ASU | Q2 | 10:53 | 3-7 | ASU 25 | 75 | 22 | Punt | Punt 51 yds, returned | 8.2% (18% conv) | — | 9.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q2 | 6:22 | 7-3 | ASU 10 | 10 | 5 | FG | FG good | 90.0% (40% conv) | 90.0% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ASU | Q2 | 5:03 | 3-10 | ASU 31 | 69 | 4 | Punt | Punt 50 yds, returned | 7.5% (44% conv) | — | 6.8% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.7 |
| ASU | Q2 | 1:31 | 3-17 | ASU 30 | 70 | 5 | Punt | Punt 45 yds | 2.3% (40% conv) | — | 2.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.2 |
| ASU | Q2 | 0:16 | 3-17 | ASU 46 | 54 | 12 | Punt | Punt 41 yds, fair catch | 2.5% (26% conv) | — | 2.6% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q3 | 12:46 | 17-3 | BYU 32 | 68 | 1 | Punt | Punt 56 yds, out of bounds | 96.9% (69% conv) | — | 96.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.4 |
| ASU | Q3 | 4:47 | 10-17 | BYU 32 | 32 | 3 | Go | Converted (4 yds) | 16.5% (50% conv) | 14.6% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| ASU | Q3 | 3:06 | 10-17 | BYU 20 | 20 | 2 | Go | Converted (4 yds) | 20.3% (57% conv) | 17.3% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q4 | 14:54 | 17-17 | BYU 44 | 56 | 1 | Go | Converted (2 yds) | 62.4% (69% conv) | — | 57.7% | Right call | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q4 | 12:08 | 17-17 | ASU 26 | 26 | 2 | FG | FG good | 67.5% (57% conv) | 65.5% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −2.0 |
| ASU | Q4 | 8:09 | 17-20 | BYU 48 | 48 | 4 | Punt | Punt 43 yds | 29.5% (44% conv) | 21.3% | 31.6% | Right call | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q4 | 5:45 | 20-17 | BYU 14 | 86 | 1 | Go | Converted (2 yds) | 65.7% (69% conv) | — | 65.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q4 | 2:24 | 20-17 | ASU 6 | 6 | 4 | Go | Converted (5 yds) | 92.0% (44% conv) | 83.7% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| ASU | Q4 | 0:57 | 17-27 | BYU 26 | 26 | 3 | FG | FG good | 0.5% (50% conv) | 0.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| BYU | Q4 | 0:03 | 27-20 | BYU 34 | 66 | 33 | Go | Turnover on downs | 100.0% (14% conv) | — | 100.0% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 ASU 3–10 BYU; at the end ASU 3–17 BYU. Snaps: ASU 10, BYU 5.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 1:55 | 1 | Touchdown |
| ASU | 1:50 | 4 | Punt |
| BYU | 1:25 | 3 | Interception |
| ASU | 0:46 | 6 | Punt |
| BYU | 0:13 | 1 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 ASU 17–27 BYU; at the end ASU 20–27 BYU. Snaps: ASU 7, BYU 4.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 1:46 | 7 | Field Goal |
| BYU | 0:51 | 4 | Downs |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 12:41 | Review: overturned |
| Q3 | 3:46 | Review: upheld |
| Q4 | 1:57 | Review: upheld |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →