Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 11:45 AM CT
AUB @ MISS
Auburn15
12 Ole MissB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
10 4th downs · 10 graded · 9 matched · 3 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | Q1 | 13:22 | 0-0 | 50 | 50 | 8 | Punt | Punt 44 yds | 76.0% (32% conv) | — | 77.3% | Right call | 0.0 |
| AUB | Q1 | 6:56 | 0-0 | AUB 46 | 54 | 15 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, fair catch | 20.6% (23% conv) | — | 21.6% | Right call | 0.0 |
| AUB | Q2 | 8:44 | 0-7 | MISS 25 | 25 | 2 | Go | Converted (4 yds) | 15.5% (57% conv) | 13.2% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| AUB | Q2 | 0:05 | 6-14 | MISS 11 | 11 | 4 | FG | FG good | 16.8% (44% conv) | 14.3% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −2.6 |
| AUB | Q3 | 13:55 | 9-14 | AUB 24 | 76 | 11 | Punt | Punt 36 yds, out of bounds | 12.5% (27% conv) | — | 13.4% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| MISS | Q3 | 9:46 | 14-9 | AUB 3 | 3 | 3 | FG | FG good | 87.0% (40% conv) | 86.6% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.4 |
| AUB | Q3 | 1:51 | 15-24 | AUB 7 | 93 | 4 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, muffed, receiving team kept it | 6.2% (44% conv) | — | 6.1% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.1 |
| AUB | Q4 | 11:21 | 15-31 | AUB 17 | 83 | 18 | Punt | Punt 50 yds, returned | 1.1% (20% conv) | — | 1.3% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| AUB | Q4 | 7:48 | 15-38 | MISS 44 | 44 | 17 | Go | Turnover on downs | 0.5% (21% conv) | 0.5% | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| MISS | Q4 | 0:33 | 45-15 | MISS 49 | 51 | 2 | Go | Turnover on downs | 99.5% (57% conv) | — | 99.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
Two-point tries
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Play | Score after (team-opp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | Q3 | 6:20 | Pass, No good | 15-17 |
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 AUB 6–14 MISS; at the end AUB 9–14 MISS. Snaps: AUB 10, MISS 1.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUB | 1:52 | 10 | Field Goal |
| MISS | 0:03 | 1 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 AUB 15–45 MISS; at the end AUB 15–45 MISS. Snaps: AUB 3, MISS 3.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 1:53 | 3 | Downs |
| AUB | 0:17 | 3 | End of Half |
Replay reviews & challenges
No replay reviews or coach's challenges are recorded in the public play-by-play feeds for this game.
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →