Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM CT
MIA @ UNC
1 Miami38
North CarolinaB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
7 4th downs · 7 graded · 7 matched · 4 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | Q1 | 5:05 | 0-7 | MIA 48 | 48 | 14 | Punt | Punt 28 yds, fair catch | 6.2% (23% conv) | 5.1% | 6.2% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| MIA | Q1 | 2:18 | 7-0 | MIA 31 | 69 | 9 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, fair catch | 89.8% (30% conv) | — | 91.1% | Right call | 0.0 |
| MIA | Q2 | 8:03 | 7-7 | UNC 35 | 35 | 1 | Go | Converted (4 yds) | 80.0% (69% conv) | 75.4% | 75.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| UNC | Q2 | 3:36 | 7-14 | MIA 34 | 34 | 1 | Go | Converted (3 yds) | 13.9% (69% conv) | 10.6% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| MIA | Q2 | 0:22 | 14-14 | UNC 7 | 7 | 7 | FG | FG good | 75.5% (26% conv) | 77.3% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| UNC | Q3 | 0:50 | 21-24 | MIA 42 | 42 | 1 | Go | Converted (2 yds) | 33.4% (69% conv) | 24.3% | 27.2% | Right call | 0.0 |
| MIA | Q4 | 7:49 | 24-28 | UNC 2 | 2 | 1 | Go | Converted (TD) | 59.4% (69% conv) | 45.7% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 MIA 14–7 UNC; at the end MIA 17–14 UNC. Snaps: MIA 9, UNC 2.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 1:56 | 1 | Touchdown |
| MIA | 1:49 | 9 | Field Goal |
| UNC | 0:22 | 1 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 MIA 38–28 UNC; at the end MIA 38–35 UNC. Snaps: MIA 3, UNC 4.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 2:00 | 4 | Touchdown |
| MIA | 1:29 | 3 | End of Game |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 | 1:12 | Review: overturned |
| Q3 | 5:14 | Review: upheld |
| Q4 | 12:11 | Review: overturned |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →