Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 6:45 PM CT

MIZ @ ARK

Week 9 reports › Top 25

23 Missouri34

FINAL

Arkansas

Final34–10MIZ at ARK

B1G+A pregame26%ARK win chance at kickoff

4th-down decisions1515 graded · 14 matched the higher-WP option

Plays tracked144from public play-by-play feeds

B1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME

Final

▲ ARK win chance▼ MIZ

Red racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.

4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS

15 4th downs · 15 graded · 14 matched · 7 go

Every 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.

Team	Qtr	Clock	Score (off-def)	Field position	Yds to goal	To go	Call	Result	Go WP	FG WP	Punt WP	Verdict	Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts)
ARK	Q1	12:59	0-0	ARK 45	55	10	Punt	Punt 44 yds, fair catch	22.9% (28% conv)	—	23.2%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MIZ	Q1	10:11	0-0	MIZ 32	68	4	Punt	Punt 28 yds, out of bounds	69.0% (44% conv)	—	68.9%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.1
MIZ	Q1	5:33	0-0	ARK 13	13	6	FG	FG good	76.5% (37% conv)	77.0%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ARK	Q1	3:41	0-3	ARK 34	66	1	Go	Turnover returned for TD	20.6% (69% conv)	—	16.2%	Right call	0.0
ARK	Q1	2:14	0-10	ARK 36	64	4	Punt	Punt 47 yds, fair catch	6.4% (44% conv)	—	5.7%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.7
MIZ	Q2	12:03	10-0	ARK 44	44	1	Go	Converted (6 yds)	93.9% (69% conv)	91.2%	92.7%	Right call	0.0
MIZ	Q2	9:00	10-0	ARK 35	35	18	FG	FG good	91.7% (20% conv)	92.7%	93.0%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.3
ARK	Q2	4:29	0-13	MIZ 33	33	15	FG	FG missed	4.9% (23% conv)	5.2%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MIZ	Q2	2:32	13-0	MIZ 20	80	24	Punt	Punt 32 yds, out of bounds	91.5% (17% conv)	—	93.6%	Right call	0.0
MIZ	Q2	0:02	13-7	50	50	10	Go	Turnover on downs	81.2% (28% conv)	—	83.6%	Higher-WP option: Punt	−2.4
ARK	Q3	5:08	7-27	MIZ 43	43	3	Go	Converted (6 yds)	1.5% (50% conv)	1.1%	1.2%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ARK	Q3	2:48	7-27	MIZ 28	28	1	Go	Converted (3 yds)	1.9% (69% conv)	1.4%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
ARK	Q4	14:56	7-27	MIZ 13	13	13	FG	FG good	1.4% (18% conv)	1.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MIZ	Q4	7:19	27-10	ARK 10	10	2	Go	Converted (TD)	99.4% (57% conv)	99.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.1
ARK	Q4	2:08	10-34	MIZ 6	6	6	Go	Turnover on downs	0.5% (28% conv)	0.5%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0

1 4th-down snap wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.

Two-point tries

No two-point tries in this game.

Clock management · final 2:00 of each half

End of 1st half

Score at 2:00 MIZ 13–0 ARK; at the end MIZ 13–7 ARK. Snaps: MIZ 7, ARK 7.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
ARK	2:00	6	Touchdown
MIZ	0:36	7	Downs
ARK	0:02	1	End of Half

End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)

Score at 2:00 MIZ 34–10 ARK; at the end MIZ 34–10 ARK. Snaps: MIZ 5, ARK 0.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
MIZ	1:53	5	End of Half

Replay reviews & challenges

Qtr	Clock	Review
Q4	10:04	Review: overturned

From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.

Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →