Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM CT

MSST @ TEX

Week 9 reports › Top 25

Mississippi St3

FINAL

11 Texas

Final3–31MSST at TEX

B1G+A pregame87%TEX win chance at kickoff

4th-down decisions1717 graded · 17 matched the higher-WP option

Plays tracked135from public play-by-play feeds

B1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME

Final

▲ TEX win chance▼ MSST

Red racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.

4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS

17 4th downs · 17 graded · 17 matched · 1 go

Every 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.

Team	Qtr	Clock	Score (off-def)	Field position	Yds to goal	To go	Call	Result	Go WP	FG WP	Punt WP	Verdict	Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts)
MSST	Q1	10:19	0-7	MSST 44	56	7	Punt	Punt 56 yds, touchback	4.5% (34% conv)	—	4.3%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.3
TEX	Q1	8:54	7-0	TEX 21	79	9	Punt	Punt 44 yds	92.1% (30% conv)	—	93.2%	Right call	0.0
MSST	Q1	4:58	0-7	MSST 48	52	13	Punt	Punt 52 yds, touchback	5.1% (24% conv)	—	5.2%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TEX	Q1	3:50	7-0	TEX 25	75	5	Punt	Punt 45 yds, fair catch	91.6% (40% conv)	—	92.3%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MSST	Q2	12:32	0-7	TEX 20	20	12	FG	FG missed	8.6% (26% conv)	8.8%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TEX	Q2	5:41	7-0	MSST 28	28	4	FG	FG good	92.6% (44% conv)	92.7%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MSST	Q2	2:49	0-10	MSST 39	61	9	Punt	Punt 45 yds, returned	4.6% (30% conv)	—	4.6%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TEX	Q2	1:43	10-0	TEX 10	90	8	Punt	Punt 36 yds, fair catch	90.4% (32% conv)	—	92.2%	Right call	0.0
MSST	Q3	13:52	0-17	MSST 25	75	10	Punt	Punt 54 yds	1.2% (28% conv)	—	1.2%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MSST	Q3	8:58	0-17	TEX 12	12	8	FG	FG good	2.9% (32% conv)	2.4%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.5
MSST	Q3	3:59	3-24	MSST 32	68	18	Punt	Punt 50 yds	0.6% (20% conv)	—	0.6%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TEX	Q3	0:46	24-3	TEX 25	75	15	Punt	Punt 23 yds, out of bounds	98.7% (23% conv)	—	99.1%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MSST	Q4	14:31	3-24	TEX 40	40	2	Go	Turnover on downs	1.0% (57% conv)	0.7%	0.8%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TEX	Q4	12:28	24-3	TEX 38	62	12	Punt	Punt 39 yds, returned	98.9% (26% conv)	—	99.3%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
MSST	Q4	10:19	3-24	MSST 20	80	10	Punt	Punt 42 yds, returned	0.6% (28% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.1
MSST	Q4	3:51	3-31	50	50	12	Punt	Punt 38 yds, fair catch	0.5% (26% conv)	—	0.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TEX	Q4	1:53	31-3	TEX 17	83	5	Punt	Punt 42 yds	99.5% (40% conv)	—	99.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0

3 4th-down snaps wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.

Two-point tries

No two-point tries in this game.

Clock management · final 2:00 of each half

End of 1st half

Score at 2:00 MSST 0–10 TEX; at the end MSST 0–17 TEX. Snaps: MSST 9, TEX 3.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
TEX	1:55	3	Punt
MSST	1:40	4	Touchdown
MSST	1:08	5	End of Half

End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)

Score at 2:00 MSST 3–31 TEX; at the end MSST 3–31 TEX. Snaps: MSST 3, TEX 1.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
TEX	1:53	1	Punt
MSST	1:38	3	End of Half

Replay reviews & challenges

Qtr	Clock	Review
Q2	15:00	Review: overturned
Q2	11:26	Review: upheld
Q2	7:56	Review: upheld
Q3	10:42	Review: overturned

From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.

Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →