Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 AM CT
ND @ NAVY
5 Notre Dame35
NavyB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
12 4th downs · 12 graded · 12 matched · 6 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | Q1 | 11:52 | 0-0 | ND 43 | 43 | 3 | Go | Converted (3 yds) | 4.3% (50% conv) | 3.2% | 3.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NAVY | Q1 | 6:43 | 0-0 | ND 21 | 21 | 13 | FG | FG good | 5.9% (24% conv) | 6.0% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ND | Q1 | 4:18 | 0-3 | NAVY 29 | 29 | 1 | Go | Converted (5 yds) | 93.3% (69% conv) | 92.0% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| NAVY | Q2 | 13:09 | 3-7 | NAVY 42 | 58 | 4 | Go | Converted (8 yds) | 4.0% (44% conv) | — | 3.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NAVY | Q2 | 8:04 | 3-7 | ND 9 | 9 | 9 | FG | FG good | 7.0% (22% conv) | 7.0% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ND | Q2 | 7:30 | 7-6 | ND 25 | 75 | 10 | Punt | Punt 48 yds, returned | 86.6% (28% conv) | — | 88.7% | Right call | 0.0 |
| NAVY | Q3 | 6:49 | 13-21 | NAVY 32 | 68 | 3 | Punt | Punt 37 yds | 5.2% (50% conv) | — | 4.6% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.6 |
| NAVY | Q3 | 0:06 | 13-28 | NAVY 43 | 57 | 2 | Go | Turnover on downs | 1.9% (57% conv) | — | 1.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NAVY | Q4 | 13:00 | 13-35 | NAVY 31 | 69 | 4 | Punt | Punt 47 yds, returned | 0.5% (44% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ND | Q4 | 8:00 | 35-13 | NAVY 40 | 40 | 5 | Go | Converted (14 yds) | 99.5% (40% conv) | 99.5% | 99.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ND | Q4 | 5:58 | 35-13 | NAVY 23 | 23 | 7 | Go | Turnover on downs | 99.5% (34% conv) | 99.5% | — | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| NAVY | Q4 | 4:15 | 13-35 | NAVY 12 | 88 | 21 | Punt | Punt 52 yds, returned | 0.5% (18% conv) | — | 0.5% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 ND 7–6 NAVY; at the end ND 14–13 NAVY. Snaps: ND 5, NAVY 5.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 2:00 | 3 | Touchdown |
| ND | 1:41 | 5 | Touchdown |
| NAVY | 0:49 | 2 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 ND 35–13 NAVY; at the end ND 35–13 NAVY. Snaps: ND 4, NAVY 0.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 2:00 | 4 | End of Half |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 | 9:13 | Review: overturned |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →