Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM CT
OKST @ ISU
24 Oklahoma St49
Iowa StateB1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME
FinalRed racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.
4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS
11 4th downs · 11 graded · 10 matched · 2 goEvery 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.
| Team | Qtr | Clock | Score (off-def) | Field position | Yds to goal | To go | Call | Result | Go WP | FG WP | Punt WP | Verdict | Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | Q1 | 6:01 | 7-7 | ISU 27 | 27 | 10 | FG | FG missed | 62.2% (28% conv) | 64.8% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| ISU | Q1 | 4:39 | 7-7 | ISU 32 | 68 | 5 | Punt | Punt 38 yds, fair catch | 34.5% (40% conv) | — | 33.9% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | −0.6 |
| ISU | Q2 | 4:51 | 21-21 | ISU 34 | 66 | 1 | Go | Converted (8 yds) | 44.2% (69% conv) | — | 38.2% | Right call | 0.0 |
| ISU | Q2 | 2:26 | 21-21 | ISU 31 | 69 | 21 | Punt | Punt 33 yds, muffed, kicking team recovered | 33.8% (18% conv) | — | 38.2% | Right call | 0.0 |
| ISU | Q2 | 0:07 | 21-21 | OKST 21 | 21 | 20 | FG | FG good | 46.6% (19% conv) | 50.9% | — | Right call | 0.0 |
| OKST | Q3 | 11:54 | 21-24 | ISU 46 | 46 | 11 | Punt | Punt 37 yds, fair catch | 39.2% (27% conv) | 35.7% | 41.4% | Right call | 0.0 |
| OKST | Q3 | 0:34 | 28-38 | OKST 28 | 72 | 7 | Punt | Punt 43 yds, fair catch | 9.3% (34% conv) | — | 9.6% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ISU | Q4 | 14:44 | 38-28 | ISU 29 | 71 | 10 | Punt | Punt 46 yds, fair catch | 81.7% (28% conv) | — | 85.8% | Right call | 0.0 |
| OKST | Q4 | 10:29 | 35-45 | OKST 32 | 68 | 3 | Go | Converted (3 yds) | 8.7% (50% conv) | — | 7.9% | Toss-up (within 1 pt) | 0.0 |
| ISU | Q4 | 5:07 | 45-42 | ISU 37 | 63 | 9 | Punt | Punt 46 yds, fair catch | 56.5% (30% conv) | — | 60.5% | Right call | 0.0 |
| ISU | Q4 | 2:56 | 45-42 | OKST 11 | 11 | 9 | FG | FG good | 82.2% (30% conv) | 72.4% | — | Higher-WP option: Go | −9.8 |
Two-point tries
No two-point tries in this game.
Clock management · final 2:00 of each half
End of 1st half
Score at 2:00 OKST 21–21 ISU; at the end OKST 21–24 ISU. Snaps: OKST 1, ISU 7.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 1:47 | 7 | Field Goal |
| OKST | 0:02 | 1 | End of Half |
End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)
Score at 2:00 OKST 42–48 ISU; at the end OKST 49–51 ISU. Snaps: OKST 8, ISU 5.
| Offense | First snap in window | Snaps in window | Drive result |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 1:54 | 8 | Touchdown |
| ISU | 0:44 | 5 | Field Goal |
Replay reviews & challenges
| Qtr | Clock | Review |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 | 12:17 | Review: upheld |
| Q4 | 13:16 | Review: overturned |
| Q4 | 10:29 | Review: upheld |
From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.
Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →