Game report · 2026 Week 9 · Top 25 · Sat, Oct 31, 9:00 PM CT

TXST @ BOIS

Week 9 reports › Top 25

Texas St45

FINAL

20 Boise St

Final45–46TXST at BOIS

B1G+A pregame77%BOIS win chance at kickoff

4th-down decisions1414 graded · 12 matched the higher-WP option

Plays tracked158from public play-by-play feeds

B1G+A WIN PROBABILITY · WHOLE GAME

Final

▲ BOIS win chance▼ TXST

Red racing arrow: B1G+A Live Tracker (Beta) win probability after every play, whole game. Black dots: every 4th-down decision by the coaches (hover or tap for the call). Open rings: the 5 biggest swing plays. Green number: team favored now. Red number: the other team. Faint dashed line: public-feed win probability, for comparison.

4TH DOWNS & COACHING DECISIONS

14 4th downs · 14 graded · 12 matched · 5 go

Every 4th-down snap for both teams. Win chances (WP) are the offense's B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability for each option at the snap: go (conversion chance × WP if converted, plus WP after a turnover on downs), field goal and punt. Options within 1 WP point are toss-ups. Fakes count as go. Bad snaps (the feed logs a team rush) are not graded. Shaded rows differ from the higher-WP option.

Team	Qtr	Clock	Score (off-def)	Field position	Yds to goal	To go	Call	Result	Go WP	FG WP	Punt WP	Verdict	Call vs higher-WP option (WP pts)
TXST	Q1	13:49	0-0	TXST 31	69	4	Punt	Punt 37 yds, muffed, receiving team kept it	19.6% (44% conv)	—	18.1%	Higher-WP option: Go	−1.5
TXST	Q1	3:52	0-7	TXST 37	63	8	Punt	Punt 46 yds	8.2% (32% conv)	—	8.0%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.2
BOIS	Q2	14:53	7-0	TXST 11	11	2	Go	Converted (3 yds)	92.9% (57% conv)	92.1%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TXST	Q2	9:08	0-14	BOIS 24	24	3	Go	Converted (10 yds)	5.0% (50% conv)	4.3%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
TXST	Q2	7:33	0-14	BOIS 13	13	9	FG	FG good	5.3% (30% conv)	4.7%	—	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.6
TXST	Q2	2:58	3-21	TXST 34	66	1	Punt	Punt 43 yds, fair catch	2.0% (69% conv)	—	1.5%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	−0.5
BOIS	Q2	0:44	21-3	TXST 45	45	1	Go	Converted (2 yds)	98.5% (69% conv)	97.7%	98.2%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
BOIS	Q3	10:50	28-3	BOIS 35	65	21	Punt	Punt 49 yds, out of bounds	99.2% (18% conv)	—	99.4%	Toss-up (within 1 pt)	0.0
BOIS	Q3	3:56	28-18	BOIS 29	71	6	Punt	Punt 45 yds, returned	88.7% (37% conv)	—	90.6%	Right call	0.0
BOIS	Q3	1:15	28-25	BOIS 26	74	9	Punt	Punt 46 yds, fair catch	63.1% (30% conv)	—	68.5%	Right call	0.0
BOIS	Q4	12:18	28-32	BOIS 23	77	12	Punt	Punt 37 yds, out of bounds	25.3% (26% conv)	—	29.5%	Right call	0.0
TXST	Q4	9:37	32-28	TXST 45	55	19	Punt	Punt 51 yds	57.3% (20% conv)	—	65.9%	Right call	0.0
BOIS	Q4	4:14	34-39	TXST 11	11	10	Go	Converted (TD)	31.4% (28% conv)	34.1%	—	Higher-WP option: FG	−2.7
TXST	Q4	1:55	45-46	TXST 32	68	3	Go	Turnover on downs	18.9% (50% conv)	—	0.5%	Right call	0.0

2 4th-down snaps wiped out by penalty (no play) left out.

Two-point tries

Team	Qtr	Clock	Play	Score after (team-opp)
TXST	Q3	4:58	Rush, Good	18-28
BOIS	Q4	6:15	Pass, No good	34-39
BOIS	Q4	4:14	Pass, No good	40-39
TXST	Q4	3:46	Pass, No good	45-40
BOIS	Q4	2:40	Pass, No good	46-45

Clock management · final 2:00 of each half

End of 1st half

Score at 2:00 TXST 3–21 BOIS; at the end TXST 3–28 BOIS. Snaps: TXST 1, BOIS 10.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
BOIS	1:55	10	Touchdown
TXST	0:02	1	End of Half

End of game (last 2:00 of regulation)

Score at 2:00 TXST 45–46 BOIS; at the end TXST 45–46 BOIS. Snaps: TXST 2, BOIS 5.

Offense	First snap in window	Snaps in window	Drive result
TXST	2:00	2	Downs
BOIS	1:51	5	End of Half

Replay reviews & challenges

Qtr	Clock	Review
Q1	13:49	Review: overturned
Q2	4:34	Review: overturned
Q4	5:15	Review: upheld

From public play-by-play feeds and the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Penalty-negated snaps are left out.

Built from public play-by-play feeds replayed through the B1G+A Model 2.2 win probability. Every number here is B1G+A. Report data (JSON) · Full box score →