B1G+A has a report for that
How the QB injury shifts UCLA's outlook
UCLA after QB Nico Iamaleava's season-ending knee injury
Published 2026-10-12
UCLA WIN CHANCE VS WISCONSIN · B1G+A
62% → 54%
What changed
QB Nico Iamaleava is expected to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury (reported Oct 12 by CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz). Ty Dieffenbach played the second half vs Oregon; coach Bob Chesney called the QB situation "decently fluid" between Dieffenbach and Madden Iamaleava (ESPN, Oct 12), so UCLA has not named a starter. B1G+A lowered UCLA's rating by 3.0 points per game, the low-middle of the usual 3–7 point range for losing a starting QB, because UCLA's offense leans on the run.
The game
Wisconsin at UCLA · Sat Oct 17, 6:30 PM CT · NBC
| B1G+A before | UCLA 62% |
|---|---|
| B1G+A now | UCLA 54% |
| B1G+A projected score | UCLA 25, Wisconsin 23 |
| Corrected Oct. 13, 2026: projected score updated from UCLA 26, Wisconsin 25 to UCLA 25, Wisconsin 23 after the game total was re-checked against the current DraftKings line (O/U 45.5 to 43.5, pulled Oct. 13, 7:44 AM CT). UCLA's 54% win chance did not change. | |
| Comparison: ESPN FPI | UCLA 57.6% (ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor, fetched Oct 12, 7:21 PM CT) |
Season outlook · B1G+A
| Before | After | |
|---|---|---|
| CFP chance (B1G+A start-of-day blend) | 33.0% | 27.8% |
| Projected regular-season wins | 9.83 | 9.38 |
| Bowl eligible (6+ wins) | 100% | 99.9% |
| Wins B1G title game | 5.3% | 2.2% |
Before = B1G+A season sim from the Oct 12, 2:23 PM CT run (saved just before the adjustment). After = Oct 12, 6:41 PM CT run, which also picks up other rating updates from that afternoon. ESPN FPI's playoff chance for UCLA is 28.6% in both runs.
Comparison: ESPN FPI playoff chance: 28.6%
Methodology: B1G+A blended rating = 70% ESPN FPI + 30% B1G+A Power Rating, plus manual adjustments for injuries (here: UCLA −3.0). Season odds come from a 40,000-run B1G+A season sim with a 12-team CFP format. Source files: data/model/adjustments.json, data/cfp/odds.json, week 7 B1G+A projections.
